Dr. Foad Izadi, a member of the Scientific Council of the University of Tehran

 

                                                                 بسم الله الرحمن الرحیم
There is one consensus in the world on one thing, and that is the belief in the decline of America. Some American experts believe that, if such and such a solution is followed, the process of decay will slow down, and that some kind of reform will take place. However, there is no doubt about the decline. There is a difference between ‘fall’ and ‘breakdown’. An example of a collapse is the USSR where the whole country and its structures and borders have undergone fundamental changes. There is no consensus on the collapse of the United States and a very small group will address this issue.


Four questions can be elaborated about the fall. These four issues ranked America as an international superpower. America has not been a superpower since its inception. It was a country that gained independence from England and which gradually stepped in this direction. The emergence of America as a superpower required a process. After II. World War II, the two countries America and the USSR, were renowned as superpowers. America's superpower rests on four pillars, military power, economic power, institutions and soft power.
As far as the economy is concerned, America is still the number one power, and China is very little behind America. It can be assumed that in a few years, China will leave America behind. But finally, if America is the first power in the world, then why talk about its downfall at all? A fall means a decline in power. After World War II, at a time when America was a superpower, it held half of the world economy in its hands. Traditional American competitor Germany had a severely devastated economy. That is the reason why half of the world economy was in American hands. Now America’s economic power has been reduced to 20% of the world economy. Not only have traditional American competitors returned to the world stage, but some new ones have emerged, such as China. At the time of II. World War II China did not have a developed economy. It has transformed into an economic power in recent years. Thus, the economic position of the United States in the international economy has been shaken.
In economic terms, America is dependent on debt. Americans used to not be in debt, but they are now the most indebted country in the world. The American government owes about 24 trillion dollars, and the American people about 60 trillion dollars. The total US debt is 84 trillion dollars. Some economists estimate that if all the world's money were collected, he would not be able to repay the debt of the American government to the people. Part of that debt is the debt they owe to the governments of China and other countries. When it comes to the economy, the American people are protesting against the economic situation, and all of these are indicators of a serious economic crisis in America.
In military terms, America ranks first in the world. China and other countries are far behind the United States in this regard. but why is America failing? U.S. military spending in many places is not in America’s favor. It costs money, and the economic problem remains in the United States. And that does no good to American foreign policy either. In regions like West Asia, the United States had goals in Syria, Yemen, and elsewhere that were not achieved. The US government said that the Syrian government must be replaced, but this did not happen, although large funds were spent on it. In Iraq, they have not achieved their goals and are leaving the country. In Lebanon, too, they have not achieved their goals. Therefore, the military force has achieved an achievement which, in fact, means a decline. America once had military power, and it used that power to achieve its goals. This situation no longer exists.
As for the issue of institutions, I must say that they faced very serious challenges during Trump's tenure. Such is the case with Congress, and the popularity of these two institutions in the United States has declined. The American people are dissatisfied with the work of these two institutions; there is a large group of those dissatisfied with Trump, but he also has a number of supporters. This dichotomy and becoming president of a man like Trump is also a sign of decay. Trump has dealt a heavy blow to the United States in these four years. Under Trump, traditional American institutions were challenged and their power of participation declined.
Soft force is the fourth case. Over the last few years, America’s position when it comes to respecting this power in the world has declined. Surveys of American companies show that the American position and reputation have changed. Trump himself contributed to that. Soft power basically means wealth and attraction, and that attraction has faced a challenge.
In general, American superiority in four spheres, in the sphere of economy, military, institutional and soft power, was challenged and declining. America is gradually becoming a completely ordinary country. In history, we have a large number of countries that were once known as superpowers and then collapsed. For example, in the 16th century. we had the Portuguese, in the 17th century. The Spaniards in the 18th century. French, in the 19th century. The English, and they all failed. In the 20th St. The Americans were the dominant superpowers, and they are failing, and America will fail in the manner of an ordinary country, as happened to Portugal or Spain. This decline will make countries that have been hit by America start breathing a little easier.